In addition to the new Pew report on US religious trends, this week we also received the 2014 statistics report from the Presbyterian Church (USA). This data shows what decline looks like in the denomination I serve.
Two years ago, when the PC(USA) posted a membership loss of almost 103,000, I suggested that based on this rate of decline the denomination has about 18 years left. We were told that this loss was abnormally high and that things would level out in subsequent years. But we reported a loss of 89,000 in 2013 and over 92,000 in 2014. We seem to be keeping pace to zero out in 16 or 17 years.
Some will point out that a big chunk of these losses are due to churches switching to more conservative denominations in the wake of recent moves to allow LGBT ordination and now same-gender marriage. This will eventually taper off, it’s believed, so losses won’t always be so high.
It’s true that 101 churches left to other denominations in 2014. But for the first time in recent years, even more churches—110—were dissolved. This is alarming, and my hunch is that this number will only increase in coming years because membership gains are nowhere near membership losses—we actually lost 157,848 members, offset by 65,415 new members. Plus, we continue to baptize fewer children (17,027) than the number of people we lose to death (28,389). (Regular readers will know not to get me started on what happens to most of our baptized youth after we confirm them.)
Yet while our existing congregations are shrinking, closing, or switching to other denominations, Presbyterians only organized 15 new churches in 2014. This is not sustainable.
As I transition to my new position as a professor of evangelism at Union Presbyterian Seminary, one of the questions I will be addressing is, “Why evangelism?” These trends provide part of the answer. In addition to foundational issues like how we understand the gospel and what it compels us to do and be in the world, I believe it is critical for the PC(USA)—and other mainline denominations —to engage in a more realistic discourse about institutional priorties, because in the not too distant future there may not be an institution to talk about.
God is bigger than our institutions so this won’t be the end of God’s kingdom, but at this point we don’t seem to know how to be church in any other way. We better do something radical to change mainline Protestantism or start preparing for something very different.